### Allan Lichtman’s Prediction for 2024: Kamala Harris
**Allan Lichtman**, a political historian known for his near-perfect track record in predicting U.S. presidential elections, has declared that **Kamala Harris** will be the next president of the United States. In a recent New York Times Opinion video, Lichtman explained his reasoning based on his “13 Keys to the White House” system, which he co-developed in 1981 with Russian mathematical geophysicist **Vladimir Keilis-Borok**.
#### The 13 Keys to the White House
Lichtman’s predictive model evaluates the political landscape using 13 criteria that have reportedly held true since 1860. According to Lichtman:
– **Current Assessment**: Harris has secured eight keys in her favor, while only three are in favor of **Donald Trump**. Lichtman noted that even if two foreign policy keys flipped due to the ongoing crisis in Gaza, it would still leave Trump with insufficient positive keys to reclaim the presidency.
– **Keys Explained**:
1. **Midterm Gains**: The incumbent party holds more seats in the House after midterms.
2. **No Primary Contest**: There’s no serious challenge for the incumbent party’s nomination.
3. **Incumbent Seeking Re-election**: The candidate is the sitting president.
4. **No Third Party**: No significant third-party campaign exists.
5. **Strong Short-Term Economy**: The economy is not in recession during the campaign.
6. **Strong Long-Term Economy**: Economic growth during the incumbent’s term matches or exceeds previous averages.
7. **Major Policy Change**: The incumbent administration implements significant changes in policy.
8. **No Social Unrest**: No sustained social unrest during the term.
9. **No Scandal**: The administration is not involved in major scandals.
10. **No Foreign/Military Failure**: The administration experiences no significant failures in foreign policy or military affairs.
11. **Major Foreign/Military Success**: The administration achieves notable success in foreign/military endeavors.
12. **Charismatic Incumbent**: The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero.
13. **Uncharismatic Challenger**: The challenger lacks charisma or national hero status.
#### Implications of Lichtman’s Prediction
Lichtman’s analysis reflects broader concerns about Trump’s viability as a candidate given the current political climate. His prediction comes in the wake of significant developments, including:
– **Biden’s Withdrawal**: President **Joe Biden**, who was initially expected to run for re-election, announced his withdrawal from the race in July due to health concerns, promptly endorsing Harris as his successor.
– **Campaign Dynamics**: The 2024 presidential race is evolving, and with early voting beginning soon, Harris’s campaign is ramping up as she seeks to solidify her position ahead of the election.
#### Conclusion
As Lichtman’s prediction gains attention, it underscores the shifting dynamics of the upcoming election, particularly with a prominent figure like Harris leading the Democratic ticket. While predictions can vary widely, Lichtman’s historical accuracy adds weight to his assertions, prompting both supporters and opponents to closely monitor the unfolding political landscape as the election approaches.